APBRmetrics

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 3294 Location: Delphi, Indiana

Of players who have gone as many minutes (67 or 68, depending on whom to believe), the only ones with a higher season PER (30.0) are Wilt (3 times), Jordan (4), Robinson (2), Shaq (3), and McGrady (1); also LeBron and Wade, this year.

No one has ever had as many Win Shares (0.4) in as few season minutes.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/tiny.cgi?id=uA3mE

In Win Shares per 1000 minutes:
6.4 Lebron
6 - Haddadi

Is anyone predicting greatness for this guy?

(I have him 10th in eW/min, between Tony Parker and Al Jefferson.)
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39% of all statistics are wrong

Kevin Pelton · Posted: Thu Apr 02, 2009 11:43 am Post subject:

I believe this should have been prefaced with "In this week's edition of Small Sample Size Theater ... ."

BobboFitos · Joined: 21 Feb 2009 Posts: 136 Location: Cambridge, MA

lol, n1
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-Rob

Jimmysmithhof · Joined: 29 Oct 2008 Posts: 36 Location: Chicago, Illinois

Next great NBA center, maybe he will play 10 mpg next year
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Derrick Rose will be the ROTY

erivera7 · Joined: 19 Jan 2009 Posts: 167 Location: Chicago, IL

KD · Joined: 30 Jan 2005 Posts: 163

It is a case of small sample size, be HH be da next D-Rob or the next Cezary Trybanski.

Still, it does bug me that, despite my best efforts, I've yet to see this guy live. I got lucky and seemed to take in half of Kendrick Perkins' Small SS in his rookie year, just out of chance and flipping around, but haven't seen a lick of this guy.

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 3294 Location: Delphi, Indiana

A small sample is a sample which is small -- not necessarily an invalid sample. I don't know anything about this guy, other than his size. He wasn't drafted, but just appeared, along with a bunch of other notable rookies in Memphis?

After a few sporadic appearances, he's been a regular off the bench. 18 min in a 2-pt loss to Den; 3 of his last 4 appearances have been in wins. Doesn't exactly look like garbage time.

If he'd gone to a US college, we'd know more. If he'd gone to Indiana, he'd be Hoosier Haddadi?
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39% of all statistics are wrong

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 3294 Location: Delphi, Indiana

Thru 68 NBA minutes:
Cezary Trybanski 3-16 FG, 8 pts, 12 reb, 11 PF, 6 blk, 5 TO
David Robinson 9-21 FG, 42 pts, 35 reb, 9 PF, 11 blk, 6 TO (74 min in 2 G)
Hamed Haddadi 12-21 FG, 38 pts, 33 reb, 11 PF, 4 blk, 4 TO
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39% of all statistics are wrong

back2newbelf · Joined: 21 Jun 2005 Posts: 169

Not like it really matters in this discussion but I was very impressed by him in the Olympics, mostly by his blocking ability. He led the tournament in blocks/game and rebounds/game, the latter by a wide margin, and was also 8th in ppg with a 50.0FG% (that 50% looks quite low though, compared to many people in the list of top-scorers)

tsherkin · Joined: 31 Jan 2005 Posts: 242

He's posting about 20/18/3 and 2 blocks per-36 right now over 13 games, lol. I think what we do know is that he can block shots and rebound pretty well. Over his small sample, he's been really efficient and drawn a ton of fouls, but it's thirteen games and less than 2 dozen total FGAs, so it's not super-meaningful.

But he's big, he's got a decent NBA frame and what-not. His big problem has been that he's basically fouling out over 36 minutes and that he's just not getting in games because the Grizz are crazy. They should be playing him instead of Darko...

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 3294 Location: Delphi, Indiana

I used b-r.com's season search for rookie centers since 1987 who:
1) Played 50-500 minutes their first year
2) Averaged <15 mpg
3) Played at least 2 years

I took the top 10 PER's as rookies: Brad Miller, Jelani McCoy, Shawnelle Scott, Ervin Johnson, Isaac Austin, Andris Biedrins, Jabari Smith, Elden Campbell, Priest Lauderdale, Eric Riley.
This brings us to a PER of 13.4 .

For each rookie, I checked his game log and found the point at which he'd played 70+ career minutes; unless he played <70 minutes that year, in which case I used season totals.

Here are their average first-70-minute rates and their career rates:

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 3294 Location: Delphi, Indiana

UGA Hayes · Joined: 30 Jun 2007 Posts: 6

You know I caught a few minutes of the Memphis game, and I have to say I was somewhat impressed. He is mobile, not outrageously skinny, and frankly looks like he knows what he is doing out there which can be half the battle with bigs. Also, his teammates seem to have a degree of confidence in him b/c they actually will give him the ball when he is in there.

Mike G · Joined: 14 Jan 2005 Posts: 3294 Location: Delphi, Indiana

Maybe this was just about small sample size. But in 120 minutes, Mr Haddadi got 47 rebounds, hit .543 on 44 true shot attempts, with 9 turnovers and 8 assists, 12 blocks and one steal.

That is roughly one 'event' per minute of play, not counting 'rebounds not grabbed', 'shots unblocked', etc. 14 pts, 14 reb, and 3.6 blocks per 36 minutes is still pretty good. Also 6 fouls and 2.8 TO.

If a guy hits 50 of his first 60 FT, we can safely bet that he's a pretty good FT shooter. Why don't we say 60 is a 'small sample' in this case?

This guy led his team, by wide margins, in OReb%, DReb%, Blk%, DRtg, and PER.
Also above the team median in TS%, Usg%, Ast%.
Below avg TO% and Stl%
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MEM/2009.html
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39% of all statistics are wrong

THWilson · Joined: 19 Jul 2005 Posts: 164 Location: phoenix