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APBRmetrics
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back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 166
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 Posted: Thu Oct 08, 2009 8:24 am Post subject: |
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| Jon Nichols wrote: | I don't want to pile on, because I'm sure your work is great, but Jermaine O'Neal being ranked lower than Jamal Magloire or Joel Anthony seems a little crazy. I know you reward efficiency, but Magloire is a non-factor on offense and Anthony is, well....whatever is less of a factor than a non-factor. Not to mention, O'Neal is a better defender than either of them (although admittedly all three are pretty solid in that respect).
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As I see it, one player(A) may be better than another(B) in all aspects of the game but let's say both shoot way below team TS%/eFG%. Wouldn't you want both take as few shots as possible?
In my mind the more A and B shoot the more they hurt the team, so it's certainly plausible for B to be the help the team more than A if he is giving up the ball to the more efficient players instead of shooting it himself.
I realize that the entire team might have a harder time on offense if B is in the game and defenders can ignore him but I also think you don't always need 5 offensively capable players on the court (think 90's Bulls with Rodman).
Realizing where you rank in team hirarchy in TS% an eFG% is also a skill!
Based on the numbers below I would say O'Neal is lacking it.
O'Neal, in the last 3 years, has always shot below team eFG% (unfortunately don't have team TS%):
IND 06-07: 47%, O'Neal: 43%
IND 07-08: 50%, O'Neal: 44%
TOR 08-09: 49%, O'Neal: 47%
MIA 08-09: 50%, O'Neal: 47%
Of course it's possible that O'Neal was always on the court with players that were even more offensively limited then he was, but I think it's unlikely.
There are also other aspects in my rating that could have given Anthony and Magloire a higher rating, most likely it was OReb%.
O'Neals' higher Ass% and lower To% don't seem to make up for it.
I see that Rasheed Wallace actually shot above team eFG% so my criticism of his shooting was unjustified.
As noted in the thread for my rating system I am aware of the fact that players who shoot above team TS% but below league average TS% undeservedly look bad.
I should probably have added that he probably also looks bad in my rating due to low OReb%.
(17th to last for players >500minutes and with height 6-8 or above) |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3293
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Thu Oct 08, 2009 8:59 am Post subject: |
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| back2newbelf wrote: |
O'Neal, in the last 3 years, has always shot below team eFG% (unfortunately don't have team TS%):
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That might be worth the trouble to have.
Last year:
Mia .532
Mia other than Wade .526
Joel Anthony .511 and never shoots
Jermaine .507
Magloire .494, almost never shoots
When you can get a 51% shot, should you pass that up for maybe getting a 53% shot?
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Jon Nichols
Joined: 18 Aug 2005
Posts: 363
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| Posted: Thu Oct 08, 2009 9:22 am Post subject: |
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| back2newbelf wrote: | | Jon Nichols wrote: | I don't want to pile on, because I'm sure your work is great, but Jermaine O'Neal being ranked lower than Jamal Magloire or Joel Anthony seems a little crazy. I know you reward efficiency, but Magloire is a non-factor on offense and Anthony is, well....whatever is less of a factor than a non-factor. Not to mention, O'Neal is a better defender than either of them (although admittedly all three are pretty solid in that respect).
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As I see it, one player(A) may be better than another(B) in all aspects of the game but let's say both shoot way below team TS%/eFG%. Wouldn't you want both take as few shots as possible?
In my mind the more A and B shoot the more they hurt the team, so it's certainly plausible for B to be the help the team more than A if he is giving up the ball to the more efficient players instead of shooting it himself.
I realize that the entire team might have a harder time on offense if B is in the game and defenders can ignore him but I also think you don't always need 5 offensively capable players on the court (think 90's Bulls with Rodman).
Realizing where you rank in team hirarchy in TS% an eFG% is also a skill!
Based on the numbers below I would say O'Neal is lacking it.
O'Neal, in the last 3 years, has always shot below team eFG% (unfortunately don't have team TS%):
IND 06-07: 47%, O'Neal: 43%
IND 07-08: 50%, O'Neal: 44%
TOR 08-09: 49%, O'Neal: 47%
MIA 08-09: 50%, O'Neal: 47%
Of course it's possible that O'Neal was always on the court with players that were even more offensively limited then he was, but I think it's unlikely.
There are also other aspects in my rating that could have given Anthony and Magloire a higher rating, most likely it was OReb%.
O'Neals' higher Ass% and lower To% don't seem to make up for it.
I see that Rasheed Wallace actually shot above team eFG% so my criticism of his shooting was unjustified.
As noted in the thread for my rating system I am aware of the fact that players who shoot above team TS% but below league average TS% undeservedly look bad.
I should probably have added that he probably also looks bad in my rating due to low OReb%.
(17th to last for players >500minutes and with height 6-8 or above) |
While shooting below team average is certainly a bad thing, I think you may be oversimplifying it. First, as Mike said, O'Neal wasn't that far from the team average, and there's no guarantee that if he passes up more shots other players will shoot them more efficiently. Secondly, and I don't want to get into it too much because there are plenty of debates about it ( http://www.sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=333 ), but it's not as simple as the most efficient players taking as many shots as possible. A player's ability to create his own shot is certainly a skill (as anyone who watched both Joel Anthony and Jermaine O'Neal last year can attest). Someone has to shoot the ball on offense, and if you have a bunch of high-efficiency, low-usage guys out there, you'll end up forcing players well out of their comfort zones.
My original point was that, especially for an offense-starved Heat 2008-09 squad surrounding Wade, shot creation does have some value, even if the player is below average. I'm not saying it's better than high efficiency, but if I have two players who shoot about the same percentage (and as long as it's not a horrible percentage), but one minds his own business while the other can carry the workload and make things considerably easier for teammates, I'd go with the latter. It's easiest (and the most difficult for statistics) on a case-by-case basis, though. |
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back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 166
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| Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2009 4:37 am Post subject: |
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| Mike G wrote: |
When you can get a 51% shot, should you pass that up for maybe getting a 53% shot? |
Why should we have to assume that O'Neal already has the ball?
He could be screaming at Mario Chalmers to pass him the ball while he is battling for post postition. Or demand plays in timeouts.
One could argue that low post players are *supposed* to have a higher TS% because, on average, the ball has to travel further/longer/through more players to get to the low post players.
O'Neal already having the ball and the deciding to maybe pass it up is definitely not the most likely scenario |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3293
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Fri Oct 09, 2009 8:57 am Post subject: |
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I thought your argument was that a team would be better simply by one of their high-usage players shooting the ball less, since his FG% was not great.
The counter-argument is that passing up the mediocre% shot does not automatically lead to a better% shot from someone else.
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eyriq
Joined: 04 Jun 2008
Posts: 54
Location: Orlando
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| Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 7:34 am Post subject: |
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I took the last three years ORtg's and DRtg's from http://www.basketball-reference.com/ and averaged them out 1-30. I then rank ordered the teams in terms of who I think has the best offense and defense, and then according to their ranking I gave them a corresponding ORtg and DRtg. This then gave me a record. It was low by 4 games so then I upped 4 teams by 1 win, and all was right in the universe. I put in the work so I'm going to post the results.
| Code: | West East
Por 58 Cle 58
SAS 56 Orl 69
Uta 57 Bos 59
LAL 62 Det 32
NOH 45 Atl 41
Dal 54 Tor 43
Den 48 Was 42
Mem 30 Mia 37
Min 22 Ind 31
Okl 36 Chi 34
Phx 42 Phl 33
GSW 35 Cha 31
Hou 28 NYK 25
LAC 38 NJN 28
Sac 19 Mil 37
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bastillon
Joined: 04 Nov 2008
Posts: 55
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| Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 8:41 am Post subject: |
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I can't believe why so little love for Boston. they won 66 in '08 and were 44-11(on 65.5 pace) last year before KG went down. they also had many injuries, especially in the front court where Scalabrine and Big Baby were starting caliber bigs. now you're getting back Garnett(and although he looks like he's reacting slowly, he looks fine physically) and they have added Rasheed.
the difference between last year and this is that they had average(at best) defense after KG went down and they're back to historically great status defensively after KG's comeback and addition of Sheed, just like from '08 to mid '09.
their next biggest weakness was poor spacing on the floor and it caused many, many TOs. now that they can use 2 big man with long range they'll space the floor just fine.
so if anything Boston should improve. I'm not sure what you think about their health but people are little bit paranoic, because Pierce, Allen, Sheed, Rondo and Perk didn't miss many games in past seasons and Garnett had first serious injury of his career and he recovered from it.
assuming healthy Garnett I'm going with 65 as a MINIMUM.
can't understand why so much love for the Cavs. poor defensive team in terms of pick and rolls adds Shaq ? a team that based its offense on spacing is now changing 20 foot range Ilgauskas for no-range Shaq ? who's jumpshooting PF with Shaq at the C ? remember the Cavs played mainly Ben/AV with Z/Joe Smith what they gonna do now ?
great defense adding a defensive liability in the middle + offensive spacing screwed up by 2 non-range bigs is just too much to overcome with Lebron's talent. I just don't see it working.
I'm thinkin 55 and early postseason exit(max 2nd rd) unless they make a favorable trade.
other predictions:
-GSW Wolves OKC Sacto and Memphis will have trouble getting out of 25 range
-much more unbalanced West than your numbers suggest
-like LAC(40-50) Suns(40+) Bulls(45+) and Philly(40+)
-don't like Blazers(50?) |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3293
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 9:25 am Post subject: |
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eyriq is now highest on Orl, Bos, LAL, Por, Uta, Dal, and LAC; lowest on Chi, Ind, Det, Hou, Min.
2009 wins and Pythagorean-expected are included as 'entries'. In the East, they depart from avg more than any other of the predictions, entirely due to the Wiz' expected (17-26 W) improvement; and in the West, because we all think Houston will drop, the Clipps should improve, dramatically.
Still accepting submissions, up until opening day.
| Code: | avg East 2009 09Py eWins btnb WS SPM CSco eyriq
60.5 Cle 66 63.2 67.6 61 50.3 68.0 58.0 58
58.3 Orl 59 58.1 60.7 57 49.0 58.3 56.0 69
54.7 Bos 62 60.0 55.5 49 49.5 58.3 56.9 59
41.2 Atl 47 45.3 42.9 44 38.0 40.5 41.0 41
39.4 Tor 33 33.6 36.2 36 43.4 42.5 35.6 43
39.4 Was 19 22.5 38.0 37 36.3 45.5 37.5 42
39.2 Chi 41 40.3 35.4 46 39.1 36.7 44.0 34
37.5 Det 39 39.6 42.6 33 39.0 34.6 44.0 32
37.4 Mia 43 41.7 37.6 37 35.9 36.0 41.2 37
36.0 Ind 36 38.2 35.4 34 40.3 39.7 35.3 31
35.9 Cha 35 37.4 30.1 40 36.5 35.2 42.5 31
34.4 Phl 41 41.2 35.1 34 38.7 26.2 39.3 33
33.4 Mil 34 38.1 22.6 38 33.6 33.4 35.9 37
31.3 NJN 34 34.5 29.0 34 36.2 27.9 32.9 28
28.8 NYK 32 34.5 26.5 33 37.0 22.7 28.3 25
40.5 east 41.4 41.9 39.7 40.9 40.2 40.4 41.9 40.0
avg West 2009 09Py eWins btnb WS SPM CSco eyriq
55.7 LAL 65 59.4 57.7 55 51.5 55.2 52.8 62
55.1 Por 54 55.1 55.8 58 44.6 57.4 56.8 58
54.1 SAS 54 51.3 58.9 54 47.2 55.4 52.9 56
51.5 Uta 48 47.8 54.8 47 51.3 53.0 46.2 57
49.3 Dal 50 46.2 50.2 43 47.1 49.9 51.8 54
47.2 Den 54 49.7 46.3 48 45.8 48.7 46.2 48
45.1 NOH 49 45.3 50.8 37 46.6 49.1 41.9 45
41.3 Phx 46 45.7 36.2 46 45.8 39.1 38.8 42
40.8 Hou 53 51.8 32.1 52 42.7 45.1 45.0 28
34.5 GSW 29 32.1 32.6 31 42.1 35.8 30.4 35
32.9 Okl 23 25.5 32.8 32 33.2 25.6 37.8 36
31.4 Mem 24 26.6 37.1 27 32.1 33.1 29.3 30
30.0 LAC 19 19.8 29.0 31 29.7 25.4 26.9 38
29.4 Min 24 28.4 33.6 34 34.5 26.5 25.7 22
23.7 Sac 17 20.7 24.7 22 33.0 25.3 18.1 19
41.5 west 40.6 40.4 42.2 41.1 41.8 41.6 40.0 42.0
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I'll be out of touch for a couple of weeks. Any predictions not edited after tipoff will be acceptable.
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Neil Paine
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 774
Location: Atlanta, GA
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Neil Paine
Joined: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 774
Location: Atlanta, GA
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BobboFitos
Joined: 21 Feb 2009
Posts: 131
Location: Cambridge, MA
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| Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:24 am Post subject: |
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| eyriq wrote: | I took the last three years ORtg's and DRtg's from http://www.basketball-reference.com/ and averaged them out 1-30. I then rank ordered the teams in terms of who I think has the best offense and defense, and then according to their ranking I gave them a corresponding ORtg and DRtg. This then gave me a record. It was low by 4 games so then I upped 4 teams by 1 win, and all was right in the universe. I put in the work so I'm going to post the results.
| Code: | West East
Por 58 Cle 58
SAS 56 Orl 69
Uta 57 Bos 59
LAL 62 Det 32
NOH 45 Atl 41
Dal 54 Tor 43
Den 48 Was 42
Mem 30 Mia 37
Min 22 Ind 31
Okl 36 Chi 34
Phx 42 Phl 33
GSW 35 Cha 31
Hou 28 NYK 25
LAC 38 NJN 28
Sac 19 Mil 37
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you have orlando winning 69 games - and you're from orlando - hmm, i wonder if thats a coincidence.
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-Rob |
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BobboFitos
Joined: 21 Feb 2009
Posts: 131
Location: Cambridge, MA
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| Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:26 am Post subject: |
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Also, Sportsbook came out with win futures 2 days ago - you should probably incorporate a "Vegas" W/L column.
_________________
-Rob |
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3293
Location: Delphi, Indiana
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| Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:34 am Post subject: |
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The lines on Sportsbook add up to 41.67 wins per team, if that's what to make of the 'over-under' lines given. Besides that anomaly, I'm not sure I want to do anything to abet gambling.
I will mention that no team has a Vegas line that's either higher or lower than all others here. Ranked now by how much we (collectively, on avg) expect a team to improve.
Under "sim" is Neil's "10,000 2010's" simulation average, which he linked above.
| Code: | East 2009 eWins btnb WS SPM CSco eyriq sim avg
Was 19 38.0 37 36.3 45.5 37.5 42 28.8 37.9
Tor 33 36.2 36 43.4 42.5 35.6 43 35.2 38.8
Cha 35 30.1 40 36.5 35.2 42.5 31 38.7 36.3
Ind 36 35.4 34 40.3 39.7 35.3 31 40.4 36.6
Mil 34 22.6 38 33.6 33.4 35.9 37 39.8 34.3
Det 39 42.6 33 39.0 34.6 44.0 32 40.4 37.9
Orl 59 60.7 57 49.0 58.3 56.0 69 51.8 57.4
Chi 41 35.4 46 39.1 36.7 44.0 34 39.2 39.2
NJN 34 29.0 34 36.2 27.9 32.9 28 37.0 32.1
NYK 32 26.5 33 37.0 22.7 28.3 25 36.2 29.8
Mia 43 37.6 37 35.9 36.0 41.2 37 42.7 38.2
Atl 47 42.9 44 38.0 40.5 41.0 41 43.7 41.6
Phl 41 35.1 34 38.7 26.2 39.3 33 41.4 35.4
Cle 66 67.6 61 50.3 68.0 58.0 58 55.8 59.8
Bos 62 55.5 49 49.5 58.3 56.9 59 54.6 54.7
east 41.4 39.7 40.9 40.2 40.4 41.9 40.0 41.7 40.7
West 2009 eWins btnb WS SPM CSco eyriq sim avg
LAC 19 29.0 31 29.7 25.4 26.9 38 26.7 29.5
Okl 23 32.8 32 33.2 25.6 37.8 36 30.2 32.5
Mem 24 37.1 27 32.1 33.1 29.3 30 33.7 31.8
Sac 17 24.7 22 33.0 25.3 18.1 19 26.6 24.1
Min 24 33.6 34 34.5 26.5 25.7 22 33.6 30.0
GSW 29 32.6 31 42.1 35.8 30.4 35 34.8 34.5
Uta 48 54.8 47 51.3 53.0 46.2 57 44.0 50.5
Por 54 55.8 58 44.6 57.4 56.8 58 49.5 54.3
SAS 54 58.9 54 47.2 55.4 52.9 56 46.7 53.0
Dal 50 50.2 43 47.1 49.9 51.8 54 43.9 48.6
NOH 49 50.8 37 46.6 49.1 41.9 45 43.5 44.8
Phx 46 36.2 46 45.8 39.1 38.8 42 43.9 41.7
Den 54 46.3 48 45.8 48.7 46.2 48 46.2 47.0
LAL 65 57.7 55 51.5 55.2 52.8 62 54.4 55.5
Hou 53 32.1 52 42.7 45.1 45.0 28 46.4 41.6
west 40.6 42.2 41.1 41.8 41.6 40.0 42.0 40.3 41.3
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Virtually every good team exceeded their Pythagorean last year, and every bad team won fewer than they should have.
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39% of all statistics are wrong |
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eyriq
Joined: 04 Jun 2008
Posts: 54
Location: Orlando
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| Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 9:19 am Post subject: |
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| BobboFitos wrote: | | eyriq wrote: | I took the last three years ORtg's and DRtg's from http://www.basketball-reference.com/ and averaged them out 1-30. I then rank ordered the teams in terms of who I think has the best offense and defense, and then according to their ranking I gave them a corresponding ORtg and DRtg. This then gave me a record. It was low by 4 games so then I upped 4 teams by 1 win, and all was right in the universe. I put in the work so I'm going to post the results.
| Code: | West East
Por 58 Cle 58
SAS 56 Orl 69
Uta 57 Bos 59
LAL 62 Det 32
NOH 45 Atl 41
Dal 54 Tor 43
Den 48 Was 42
Mem 30 Mia 37
Min 22 Ind 31
Okl 36 Chi 34
Phx 42 Phl 33
GSW 35 Cha 31
Hou 28 NYK 25
LAC 38 NJN 28
Sac 19 Mil 37
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you have orlando winning 69 games - and you're from orlando - hmm, i wonder if thats a coincidence. |
Coincidence? THIS! IS! SCIENCE! 
Now where was I? Orlando fell into an identity three seasons ago with Rashard at the 4 and the 3 bomb reigning king. This is Stan and Otis's 3rd iteration of that model, and the personnel is perfect. No holes, no weaknesses. The Magic had the best defense last year, and the 11th best offense. Now, I think that Boston is going to reclaim that spot as defensive kings. Who else can we confidently say will be better defensively than the Magic? LA Lakers? Cleveland? San Antonio? Then on offense the Magic get Nelson back, replace the inefficient Hedo with Vince Carter, replace Battie with Bass and Anderson, have a shot at an improved Howard, a healthy Pietrus, a rejuvenated Williams, Barnes fitting in perfectly, and so on. Is it beyond probability that the Magic won't end up with the best offense in the league? That is where I'm putting my money. So how many games does a team win if they have the #1 offense, #2 defense? |
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back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 166
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| Posted: Sun Oct 25, 2009 8:18 am Post subject: |
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| Jon Nichols wrote: | I don't want to pile on, because I'm sure your work is great, but Jermaine O'Neal being ranked lower than Jamal Magloire or Joel Anthony seems a little crazy.
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Sorry for bringing up and old topic but I finally had the time to make my rating system show the details of the accumulated credit.
I will now try to make a case for Joel Anthony against Jermaine O'Neal. I know it's possible that Anthony solely looks better because he played against bench players more. I realize O'Neal is probably the offensively more versatile player and I realize that my rating system may have the problem of undervaluing shot creators.
Nevertheless, shooting is only one aspect where O'Neal looks worse, so here goes:
My rating system has O'Neal, in Miami, as +1.2. The +1.2 means that he created a positive differential of 1.2, over all his games there. Pretty much average. Anthony has a rating of +30. Their difference is ~29.
on the left is O'Neal, on the right is Anthony:
| Code: |
negative from misses -52.969 -8.453
positive from unassisted made shots 25.738 2.802
positive from assisted made shots 15.559 4.615
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This is basically the shooting part of the rating system. O'Neal shot alot more and subsequently got more negative credit for missing shots. He got more positive credit for making more shots, but not enough to make up for the negative credit. This is due to O'Neals' below league average TS%. This puts O'Neal at -11 and Anthony at -1
| Code: |
positive from assists 11.762 5.679
negative from to -21 -15
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O'Neal gets more credit for assists, but he also gets almost the same amount of more (negative) credit for oppoent points after he turned the ball over
| Code: |
negative from opp made shots -54.74 -55.444
positive from non blocked opp misses 52.744 58.604
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Both players get about the same amount of negative credit due to opponents making shots while they're on the floor. Anthony gets more positive credit due to opponents missing more shots while he is on the floor
| Code: |
positive from steal 13.5 7.5
positive from team-"steal" 4.2 9.9
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"Steal" includes charges. "Team"-steals include forcing all types of X-second violation and passes out of bounds.
O'Neal gets more credit for points after steals and drawing charges, but opponents seem to turn the ball over more on shot clock violations and passes that go out of bounds when Anthony is on the floor.
| Code: |
positive from blocking 15 15
negative from opp oreb -16.7 -16.5
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both players get the almost exact amount of credit for points after blocks and failing to grab defensive boards
| Code: |
negative from being blocked -6 -2.5
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O'neal gets more negative credit for opponents' points scored after he was blocked (this was not already included in missed shots)
| Code: |
positive from oreb 15.5 26
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Anthony gets more credit for points scored after his offensive rebounds.
In completely unrelated news, Bill Simmons posted his projections. Mike G, if you want to include those here they are
| Code: |
Eastern Conference
1. Boston, 62-20
2. Orlando, 60-22
3. Cleveland, 59-23
4. Chicago, 49-33
5. Atlanta, 44-38
6. Washington, 43-39
7. Miami, 42-40
8. Philly, 40-42
9. Charlotte, 39-43
10. Toronto, 39-43
11. New York, 32-50
12. Detroit, 31-51
13. Indiana, 26-56
14. New Jersey, 25-57
15. Milwaukee, 19-63
Western Conference
1. San Antonio, 64-18
2. L.A. Lakers, 63-19
3. Utah, 51-31
4. New Orleans, 48-34
5. Dallas, 46-36
6. L.A. Clippers, 45-37
7. Houston, 44-38
8. Denver, 44-38
9. Phoenix, 43-39
10. Zombies, 42-40
11. Portland, 41-41
12. Golden State, 28-54
13. Memphis, 24-58
14. Minnesota, 22-60
15. Sacramento, 15-67
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