Here we are, less than 24 hours from the first preseason game and I can’t lie, I’m excited. Vin Baker is gone, gone, gone like a fart in the wind and I think I join every other Sonics fan on the planet in suddenly finding our team slightly more likable again. I am very excited but to see why I say “slightly” just read the rest of my column.
The Off-season:
How can something so good feel so damn bad?
If you had asked me at the end of last season what I considered likely for the off season I would have answered that Vin Baker was unmovable, Rashard Lewis would likely re-sign but at near to the maximum, and Jerome James was probably gone. So what do the Sonics do? They go and trade Vin, actually getting some value and expiring contracts in return, play tough with Shard to get him on a very reasonable $60 million deal, and bring back James for 3 years and $15 million. I should be on cloud nine, right? Not so much. The protracted contract negotiations with Rashard Lewis, nasty comments by Gary Payton, and in general negative publicity surrounding the team this off -eason tempered my enthusiasm as well as many other fans. Throughout the summer message boards increasingly blasted Lewis for his contract demands and management for their handling of the situation. In the end one of the best off-seasons in Sonics history wound up feeling somewhat down and depressing but, when looked at in hindsight, it was extremely successful and fans of the team should feel some real optimism.
The dealing of Vin Baker simply cannot be minimized. David Locke of KJR correctly summed up the Vin Baker situation in his end of season evaluation last year. He said basically that Vin Baker was like a weight around the Sonics neck and unfortunately feelings of optimism would not be possible by either the fans or management until Vin was gone. Now he’s gone, the weight is lifted, and hopefully the team will respond.
Where did it leave us:
The Sonics subtracted Vin Baker, Shammond Williams, Randy Livingston, Earl Watson, Art Long, and Olumide Oyedeji. They added Kenny Anderson, Vitaly Potapenko, and Joseph Forte, and are likely to keep one of Reggie Evans, Kei Madison, or Miles Simon as a practice player.
It is safe to say that only Livingston and Watson of the players lost contributed to team harmony in any way. Baker and Williams simply did not want to be here and it was imperative that they be traded. The pieces we received back, Anderson, Potapenko, and Forte, are not necessarily the greatest fits for our team but do have some value. Kenny Anderson is obviously the best backup Gary Payton has had in his career. A New York Playground legend, longtime vet, former all-star, and one of the team leaders with Boston last year, he would start for most teams but his role is less clear in Seattle. In the best case scenario he will provide solid backup to Gary Payton giving GP the rest he needs to finish the season strong and both veteran players the chance to extend their careers with an effective tandem for the next several years. On the other hand he could sit on the bench, become a cancer, and infuriate Payton with every minute he plays. Your guess is as good as mine.
Vitaly Potapenko is basically written off as a non-factor by many fans. He is injured and will not play until December, but when he returns he is known to be a slightly below average starting C/PF who is a very physical 285lbs, works tremendously hard, and is more of a rebounder than a scorer. I’d be upset if he were our starting C or PF but off the bench that is not too darn bad. I expect Vitaly to be a big surprise this season finishing strong in the second half as an effective bench player and our team thug. We needed to get tough and Vitaly provides that.
The Sonics met their off0season goals and even added some depth and potential with young players like Joseph Forte, Ansu Sesay, and possibly Reggie Evans. I will not pretend to know what these guys can give us but feel the team must be very excited to return a starting lineup they featured for about 20 games last season and only have three major personnel changes to with compared to the 6-7 new players they’ve featured in each of the last three off-seasons. Continuity should do the team some good and another year of growth should favor young players like Mason, Lewis, Radmanovic, and Booth.
A team full of questions:
Personally I cannot remember a team in the NBA with so many question marks. Virtually every position on the roster poses a major question and some will be answered positively, while others will be negative. To demonstrate this lets run down the roster:
Gary Payton: Will Gary Payton explode in a contract year? He’s already thrown tantrums and held out on media day. He could explode into a bitchy, destructive tantrum or, as I expect, explode statistically into one of those career contract years that leads to a bigger contract next off season. Management has challenged him and he needs to show he is still one of the top players in the league. GP steps up and delivers. I believe it and expect to see it this season.
Brent Barry: Will Bones repeat his career best year or was last season an aberration?
Rashard Lewis: Is he worth the big money? How will he respond to being “the man”? Quite simply, is he a star?
Vladi Radmanovic: Will he suffer a sophomore slump? Is he a legitimate NBA starter?
Jerome James: Will he continue to develop or get fat on his new contract?
Kenny Anderson: How will he adjust to life as a backup?
Desmond Mason: Is this his year? Is he ready to step up to the next level?
Calvin Booth: Was he a bust or not?
Vitaly Potapenko: Stiff or legitimate backup? Did he suffer a career ending injury?
Peja Drobnjak: Is he a legit NBA player or was last year a fluke?
Joseph Forte: Is he a bust? Still has to demonstrate that he can play in this league.
Ansu Sesay: Was he for real? He looked damn good in 20 games last year.
My expectations are that Gary Payton and Rashard Lewis will deliver. Two of the three of Mason, Barry, and Vladimir Radmanovic will exceed our expectations, and out of the group of James, Potapenko, and Drobnjak, Forte, and Sesay we will wind up with at least two players who can contribute. That leaves Anderson and Booth as our wildcards for the season. If they come to play this season will be very successful. If not we’re middle of the pack.
Still the number of question marks surrounding this team should lead to cautious optimism at best and temper our enthusiasm. GP really could become a problem and any of the young guys could turn into colossal failures. We have only one recent all-star on our team and the problem with unproven guys is that they simply don’t always deliver. Don’t be surprised when at least one and maybe more of the young guys fails to be a factor this season.
Size baby:
The Sonics feature 3 players over 270 in Drobnjak, James, and Potapenko. They have six players, or half of their active roster over 6’10 in James, Drobnjak, Potapenko, Radmanovic, Lewis, and Booth. Of their guard corps, only Kenny Anderson (6’1) stands under 6’4 while Payton, Forte, Mason, and Barry are all well-sized for their position. In other words this is a big team, I believe that overall they may be the biggest in the league. The Sonics have been undersized for years but are no longer. They should be able to play a post up game with James and Booth, lay down the lumber with Potapenko, and punish people accordingly. It will be interesting to see whether the game plan is adjusted accordingly.
Summary/Predictions:
As mentioned above there are a lot of questions and that makes this season hard to call. I honestly would not be surprised if things went bad and we won only 40 games. However, the pre-season is time for optimism and I see a lot of things to like about this team. As mentioned above I see Payton and Lewis doing well; add two of three out of Mason, Barry, and Radmanovic and suddenly we have five very good players with a solid supporting cast. Most importantly we have Nate McMillan tying them all together and he truly is an exceptional coach. We have lots of guys with something to prove and he is just the right guy to maximize their returns. The Sonics overcame major injuries last year and still pulled off a surprising 45 wins. I’m betting that Vin Baker’s absences is good for 1-2 wins on its own, the development of our young players is worth 1-2, and somewhat better health adds another 2-3, Therefore my prediction is that we surprise, start strong, finish ahead of Utah, Minnesota, and Portland to take the #5 seed with around 49-52 wins.
Western Conference:
1. Sacramento Kings
2. LA Lakers
3. San Antonio Spurs
4. Dallas Mavericks
5. Seattle Supersonics
6. Portland Trail Blazers
7. Utah Jazz
8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Eastern Conference
1. New Orleans Hornets
2. Indiana Pacers
3. New Jersey Nets
4. Toronto Raptors
5. Orlando Magic
6. Philadelphia 76ers
7. Boston Celtics
8. Milwaukee Bucks
MVP: Tim Duncan
Most Improved Player: Michael Bradley, Raptors, minutes help
Rookie of the year: Jay Williams, Bulls
Surprise Player of the year: Marcus Camby, Nuggets
Worst Trade of the year: Boston Celtics, acquire Vin Baker and Shammond Williams
Best Trade of the year: LA Clippers acquire Andre Miller
Most Disappointing Free Agent Signing: Tie, Donyell Marshall, Bulls and Bryon Russell, Wizards. Damn those Jazz free agents.
The Future:
This off-season left us fairly well positioned for the future, but not with all the cap room we’d desire. Currently we are committed to about $34 million in salary for next season, enough to offer a free agent a deal starting at $9 million or so IF we renounce Gary Payton and Kenny Anderson. Under that scenario we’d probably be better of holding onto GP and just using our exception next year. If things go bad during the season, look for us to clear cap by trying to trade Potapenko, Booth, or Barry. If things go well it is my hope that we will look to trade 2-3 of our supporting cast for one superior talent at the deadline. My theory is that Nate McMillan is a systems coach. Much like the Utah Jazz under Jerry Sloan, he makes average players look good and good players look great by running a structured system which makes them look better than they are. A major reason why the Jazz never won their title is that they failed to get any return from players such as Shandon Anderson, Howard Eisley, and now Bryan Russell and Donyell Marshall, all of whom departed via free agency. The Sonics should not repeat their mistakes and should be unafraid to make a bold move.
Enough of the future, I’m ready for the here and now. The clock just struck midnight and its game day baby!!! GO SONICS!!!
Brian Robinson is an original SonicsCentral columnist who has had to bow out because of his time obligations. He is well-versed in the ways of the CBA. Brian can be reached at b_e_robinson@hotmail.com. All opinions expressed in this column are solely the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of other columnists or staff of SonicsCentral.com