A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to SuperstardomBy Kevin PeltonFor Hoopsworld.com Feb. 17, 2004 It was a little over a year ago when, in one of my first "Page 23" columns, I wrote about the performance of last year's rookie class. My conclusion? "Probably about in the middle [going back to 1990], so far. It's produced some very solid rookies, but nobody on the level of an O'Neal or a Webber or the depth of 1996." All told, that was probably on the negative side of assessments of the class of 2002. After all, after consecutive terribly rookie classes, a group with a pair of impact players in Yao Ming and Amare Stoudemire, as well as several solid contributors, looked spectacular by comparison. The implication, largely left unsaid, was that once these young players got a little more NBA experience, they would be an influx of new talent into the NBA. I picked five second-year players -- Mike Dunleavy, Mehmet Okur, Tayshaun Prince, Marko Jaric, and Melvin Ely -- amongst my ten selections for my regrettably awful list of breakout candidates, and afterwards I received e-mail wondering why I hadn't picked Yao or Amare. In my Pacific Division preview, I explained my reasoning: "Stoudemire, however, could be in for a mildly disappointing season in my opinion. Not that I have anything against him, but things went so right during his rookie year that any turbulence during his second season will look worse by comparison." Midway through the 2003-04 season, the sophomores have lost the attention they garnered to a new rookie class. Despite their easy triumph in the got milk? Rookie Challenge, the second-year players are perceived now to be relatively weak. Wrote ESPN.com's Joe Lago in his discussion of the Rookie Challenge, "The sophs could very well win Friday night. But a Rookie Challenge victory won't change the fact that the frosh are ahead of them and the schedule of everyone's expectations." What went wrong for last year's rookies when they turned into this year's sophomores? To get a better idea, I decided to break down the numbers of the nine members of last year's All-Rookie team (Jay Williams being the tenth), as well as some other key rookie contributors from last season. Amare Stoudemire, PF, PhoenixYear MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 31.3 13.5 8.8 1.0 .530 13.5 0.02 .491 157 2003-04 33.7 16.8 8.1 1.1 .526 11.5 0.02 .495 61 TS% = points/(2*(fga+(.44*fta))) Pass = 50*((ast/min)^2)*(ast/to) Eff is per-minute efficiency, my own formula explained here VORP = (Eff - replacement level [.43])*min Injury problems aside -- Stoudemire has missed 27 games, mostly because of a sprained ankle, and the Suns went 7-20 without him -- last year's Rookie of the Year has held up pretty well. Stoudemire will probably need to develop the skill aspects of his game, notably his passing and his midrange jumpshot, to progress to consistent All-Star level, but he is already a very good player. Still, the leap forward some expected wasn't really realistic. There's not a whole lot Stoudemire can do with his game until he makes those developments.
Year MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 29.1 13.5 8.2 1.7 .570 13.6 0.13 .521 216 2003-04 32.4 16.5 9.0 1.5 .589 13.3 0.06 .532 172 Yao's development doesn't leap off the page, but it's the kind of consistent, steady improvement one would expect from a player who was already so good as a rookie and probably better than I'd expected. Yao is shooting better this season while also taking more of the Rockets' possessions. The primary things holding him back from having a bigger impact at this point are his continued low touches in the post and his low minutes played. There was a discussion recently in the apbr_analysis statistics discussion group of why Yao plays so little, but the question itself may be flawed. Few centers play more than 32 minutes a night, and most of them aren't 7-6 (doesn't it seem like abnormally tall players have more injury problems than normal?) Given this summer's rumors that Yao was suffering from hypertension -- eventually attributed to a translation error, but disconcerting nonetheless -- it only seems prudent to limit Yao's minutes. Patience, my friends. He's got plenty of time to develop.
Year MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 36.6 15.4 5.1 2.7 .502 6.7 0.31 .467 106 2003-04 29.2 7.6 3.9 1.7 .395 6.4 0.18 .366 -75 Was it just last spring we were discussing whether Butler deserved to be mentioned with Yao and Stoudemire in the Rookie of the Year discussion? I was stunned to notice today that Butler had been left off the Sophomore squad in the Rookie Challenge, but it would have been tough to justify putting him on the team given how horrible he's been this season. Butler's lost season started with arthroscopic surgery on his knee, during which time Heat newcomers Dwyane Wade and Lamar Odom usurped his role. Most of Butler's loss has been his terrible shooting -- he has the worst true shooting percentage amongst players who've played 500 or more minutes -- and my recent research has indicated that such changes are likely temporary. That said, Butler wasn't particularly efficient last season, and much of his hype was due to his scoring average. With Odom and Wade around, Butler likely won't be the first option in Miami. We've probably heard the last of the Paul Pierce comparisons.
Year MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 26.8 12.5 6.5 1.2 .503 11.7 0.05 .478 91 2003-04 28.3 11.9 6.5 1.2 .488 11.1 0.07 .477 72 What needs to be kept in mind about Gooden's rookie numbers is that those are a combination of what he did in Memphis (okay) and Orlando (outstanding). I eschewed my own rule against focusing on second-half stats in Gooden's case because there seemed to be a legitimate reason for his numbers to improve -- not only did he change teams, but also played exclusively down low after playing some on the perimeter with the Grizzlies. However, Gooden has regressed to about the level of his average performance last season, hardly an encouraging sign for his future. Gooden is a decent rebounder who isn't very efficient offensively -- not a hot commodity in the NBA.
Year MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 28.1 10.5 6.1 1.9 .545 10.5 0.18 .494 145 2003-04 32.7 11.5 6.5 2.2 .580 9.6 0.19 .482 83 Nenê was another guy, if I recall correctly, where a reader asked why he wasn't on my breakout list. The same general theory applied. Nenê has improved his shooting this season; he is second in the league, shooting 53.0% from the field. Nenê has also demonstrated impressive passing touch for a big man during his two NBA seasons. However, his rebounding has become poor enough this season to become a concern if he wasn't playing next to Marcus Camby.
Year MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 20.8 7.6 2.3 2.0 .556 5.4 0.64 .483 76 2003-04 31.4 12.7 4.8 4.1 .517 7.4 1.82 .495 98 I'll plead guilty of describing Ginobili's season as a "disappointment" in writing last month's Spurs preview for SUPERSONICS.COM. Looking more deeply at the numbers, that doesn't seem to be the case. Ginobili's shooting hasn't been as efficient, but he's stepped up his role in the San Antonio offense and is passing and rebounding better. Ginobili ranks in the top ten amongst shooting guards in both rebounds per game and assists -- the other four players who share that distinction are all All-Stars. (I'm certainly not arguing Ginobili should be, but that does highlight his versatility.)
Year MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 28.3 12.3 3.1 1.8 .529 5.3 0.19 .455 53 2003-04 29.9 10.1 3.5 1.7 .526 5.6 0.20 .439 12 Giricek has also missed some time, going on the injured list with a strained right arch earlier this season. When on the court, Giricek has been almost as efficient a shooter, but much less likely to pull the trigger. That's why his scoring average has gone way down in increased minutes. Given virtually all of Giricek's value is in his shooting, when he's on the court and not shooting, he's not very useful. In his case, the decline would seem easily reversible.
Year MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 25.3 10.0 7.5 1.3 .577 14.3 0.14 .527 198 2003-04 34.5 14.6 11.0 2.2 .555 15.3 0.25 .527 154 Suddenly it doesn't seem quite so crazy for me to suggest Boozer is as good as anyone in the class of 2002, now does it? The second-round pick is the only sophomore averaging double-figures rebounds, he's third in scoring after Stoudemire and Yao, and basically as efficient as ever. Boozer showed when LeBron James and Zydrunas Ilgauskas were out last month that he can handle the responsibility of more post looks. The team would be better off giving him more possessions and Ilgauskas less. Boozer hasn't improved at all this season, but he was already outstanding.
Year MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 23.5 8.3 2.3 2.6 .515 4.6 1.66 .449 29 2003-04 13.0 3.5 1.1 1.3 .377 3.9 0.96 .368 -25 Ouch. What happened there? In hindsight, it probably should have been clear that Bremer was playing a bit over his head last season. Just a 33.1% shooter from downtown his senior year at St. Bonaventure, he improved to 35.3% last year with the longer three-point line. He's also playing in an offense in Cleveland less suited for his talents, after being tailor-made for the O'Brien Celtics' all threes, all the time system. Last summer, I wrote in a Transaction Analysis that the Celtics made a mistake dumping Bremer for Mike James. I couldn't possibly have been more wrong.
Year MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 15.9 5.7 2.6 1.3 .505 7.9 0.41 .456 34 2003-04 31.0 12.1 6.3 2.7 .548 9.8 0.63 .487 83 There seem to be a lot of people who are down on Dunleavy. I know when I talked to Dean Oliver, a Bay Area native, about Dunleavy earlier this year, he had a significantly more pessimistic take than mine. Dunleavy pretty clearly isn't ever going to be a go-to guy, but he can shoot, he's a solid rebounder for a small forward, and he's already improved a ton this season -- the most improved sophomore who played regularly last season. I wouldn't have taken him with the third pick, but you could do much worse than Dunleavy.
Year MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 29.5 13.4 1.7 2.8 .466 2.8 0.67 .434 6 2003-04 18.6 8.3 1.5 0.9 .467 3.7 0.10 .430 0 It may not be fair to look at Wagner's 2003-04 numbers. After all, he's played only 20 games this season, missing the rest of the year with a torn meniscus in his right knee. Pretty much, he's been the same player as last year, except for improving form abysmal to merely awful in the rebounding department. His passing has also been worse, though that's probably a result of handling the ball less with LeBron James and two veteran point guards around. Wagner more or less is what he is -- a low-percentage gunner whose efficiency may not ever be good enough for him to make use of his ability to create shots.
Year MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 19.0 6.9 4.7 1.0 .514 11.8 0.15 .475 61 2003-04 23.7 10.1 6.6 1.0 .535 13.3 0.05 .501 85 Okur has had his problems with new coach Larry Brown, mostly over his preference for shooting outside rather than banging away in the paint, but it would be tough for even curmudgeonly ole' Larry to argue with the results. In a rookie class that was deep in terms of big men, Okur stands with any of them outside the top three (Stoudemire, Yao, Boozer). His rebounding improvement this season has been especially important, especially considering he's usually playing alongside the superhuman Ben Wallace. Incidentally, in case anyone's wondering, I'm not including Prince in this column because he didn't play enough as a rookie to make his statistics meaningful.
Year MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 20.9 7.4 2.4 2.9 .498 5.6 1.84 .465 48 2003-04 30.5 9.1 3.2 4.7 .491 5.0 2.76 .447 24 The numbers and my own observations agree on this point: The Clippers have three very good players (Quentin Richardson, Corey Maggette, and Elton Brand) and the main reason they're not above .500 is because they have such enormous holes at point guard and center. (By way of comparison to Michael Olowokandi and most rookie centers, Chris Kaman has looked okay, but he's my pick for the worst starting center in the league; his true shooting percentage is in Olowokandi territory at .490.) My optimistic projection of Jaric was, in hindsight, probably overly dependent on him using a high number of possessions as a rookie. This year, he's using far less, but his scoring efficiency has gone down anyways. He's improved his passing, but still not to nearly the level needed at the point.
If we were to average the sophomores listed for both their first and second seasons -- an admittedly unscientific process, with no weight given to minutes played -- here's what we'd get: Year MPG PPG RPG APG TS% R48 Pass Eff VORP 2002-03 25.8 10.5 4.7 1.9 .524 8.7 0.49 .477 94 2003-04 28.4 11.1 5.5 2.0 .507 8.9 0.56 .465 57 Is this some specific shortcoming of the class of 2002?
I don't think so. I think the big picture here is that the performance of these players illustrate that fans and analysts alike are too linear in their thinking about player development. The average player improves a certain amount between his first and second seasons, so we expect every rookie to improve by that amount. In general, that's the best plan of attack, but it provides a false sense of certainty that just doesn't exist.
At the same time -- at least by metrics -- players who find early success don't improve as much as you might think. In my column last summer about Gilbert Arenas, I looked at the development by age of players who achieved the 100-VORP plateau as rookies -- a very successful rookie season (five players met this standard last year -- Stoudemire, Yao, Butler, Nenê, and Boozer).
Let me run those charts again: Age # Yr1 Yr5 Change 19 1 110.7 124.0 12.0 20 6 115.3 118.5 2.7 21 12 116.8 121.8 4.3 22 50 116.2 114.4 -1.6 23 37 115.7 113.7 -1.8 24 8 117.3 117.2 -0.1 25 2 117.2 110.9 -5.4 26 3 116.1 100.2 -13.7 30 1 120.5 103.5 -14.1 31 1 131.5 120.9 -8.1 # Yr1 Yr5 Change Young 19 116.0 120.8 4.2 Normal 87 116.0 114.1 -1.7 Old 15 118.2 114.1 -3.4 What these charts show is the players' relative efficiency (per-minute efficiency divided by replacement level, to account for changes in league-wide efficiency) in their rookie season and in their fifth season. The change, naturally, is the percentage difference between the two.
In the Arenas column, the moral of the story was that young players developed much better than old ones -- a seemingly obvious point that often goes overlooked. Now, the important thing is something more subtle when it's not bludgeoning you over the head with all those minus signs in the right-hand column: Successful rookies, for the most part, don't improve all that much on a per-minute basis. Most of their "improvement", instead, comes from adding more minutes (as we see this year's sophomore class doing).
The "normal" group is composed of players who were either 22 or 23 at the end of their rookie seasons -- more or less the average age. This group saw their per-minute efficiency decline between year one and year five -- certainly not, I would say, the expected result. Even the young players -- early entrants, for the most part -- only slightly improved their performance.
In general, I think it's fair to say that fans are overly optimistic about the potential of young players. The unfortunate thing is, when the players fall somewhere south of the stardom predicted for them, fans often turn on them, accusing them of being lax in their personal development. In situations like that, nobody wins.
Kevin Pelton is an intern for the Seattle SuperSonics and is responsible for original content on Supersonics.com. He writes "Page 23" for Hoopsworld.com on a semi-regular basis. He can be reached via e-mail at kpelton@sonicscentral.com.
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