Kevin: Why pay Rashard? Because you can't afford not to. This is a 22-year old kid who is one of the better starters, and arguably the second best player on a playoff team. His future's so bright, I have to wear shades inside KeyArena. In the last three years, he's gone from a kid whose only 'offense' was a dunk to an outside shooter so talented that he made the All-Star Three Point Shootout last year. He's improved other aspects of his offense and become a fine rebounder. Now, what exactly about that screams, "We should get rid of this guy," to you?
Kevin: Okay, back it up a little . . . let's talk about that 22-year old kid business. Sure, to be technical, he'd be a senior in college right now were it not for Spencer Haywood and Sam Schulman, but that doesn't necessarily mean we should only expect him to be as good as a college senior. By that same theory, Tracy McGrady is supposed to be a rookie this year. Gee, you think he might win Rookie of the Year?

Kevin: Okay, I'll grant you that point. Most of the evidence points to high school kids developing about as fast as guys who go to college based on years in the NBA . . . and no, I don't imagine that this year's rookie class, well nice, can compare to McGrady. But there's no firm conclusion on the effect of coming ought of high school on career length. Sure, you can point to Shawn Kemp, who's washed up before he's eligible to run for President, but let me introduce Exhibit A. Moses Malone -- you may have heard of him? Dude went to the ABA as a high schooler and played a mere 22 seasons, until he was over the hill. By the way, anyone else find it odd that Malone, who set a record for most games played without fouling out, and Kemp, who couldn't keep from fouling out, are both part of this argument?
Kevin: Now, you've got a good point there. Rashard could well play to the point where he starts complaining about these damned kids coming out of high school, but . . . so what? Does that have anything to do with whether he should get paid now? I highly doubt you want the Sonics to give him a salary equivalent to his career contributions, but instead what he's going to do now.

Kevin: And what is he doing now? Gee, he's only first on the team in rebounding and second on the team in scoring. Boy, what a loser!
Kevin: Not to mention second on the team in minutes. He should be putting up those kinda numbers in those kinda minutes. Let's talk per-minute statistics, if your feeble mind can comprehend that. In his second year, when Westphal refused to let him off the bench, Lewis averaged 20.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per 48 minutes and had a 52.1% adjusted shooting percentage. What's he doing now, you ask? 21.5 points, 9.2 boards, 53% adjusted shooting percentage. To use your own sarcasm, gee, he's really improving quite a bit, isn't he? (By the way, as a brief aside . . . Lewis is now a worse per-minute rebounder this season than everybody's favorite target Baker. Sure, Baker should be getting more since he's a four, but let's lay off a little bit, okay?)

Kevin: Sure, sure, but you yourself would be the first to admit that points and rebounds ain't everything and per 48 minute numbers can be misleading. Sure, he's not doing as well per-minute, but why should we expect that? It's a lot easier to play your hardest for 15 minutes a night than 40 minutes per . . . and wasn't it you that thought Nate was riding him too hard?
Kevin: Well, then let's compare apples to apples. Last year, he played about the same number of minutes. Let's look at those same statistics again for last year: 20.3 points, 9.5 boards, 55% adjusted shooting percentage. Again, I ask you, how is this guy improving?

Kevin: Again I'll tell you, there's more to the game than rebounding. Rashard has become a lot better at conserving possessions -- reducing turnovers while increasing steals. His assist/turnover ratio has jumped up to 1.22 and his steal/turnover ratio is a fabulous 1.05. That's tied for 17th amongst all qualified players. Since the new year started, Lewis has had 29 steals, an average of better than 2.5 per game. If he could keep it up, that would be second in the NBA. What's that you were saying about no defense again?
Kevin: Well, that's quite a leap of faith to make right there. Steals = defense? You know who's second in the league in steals right now? Larry Hughes. Jason Williams is fifth. I don't think of either of these guys as even average defenders, let alone great ones. A lot of Lewis' steals come from good defensive efforts by teammates like Payton. One on one, we all know that Lewis lacks the footspeed to keep up with most small forwards in the NBA and the strength to defend power forwards in the post. He also has developed a rather disturbing tendency to roam and not get back in the trap, leading to open threes for the opposition. And as for the turnover statistics you quote . . . well, it's easy to not turn the ball over when you never drive the lane.

Kevin: Never draw the lane? He's been going to the hole much better this season, and even playing in the post a little bit of late.
Kevin: I know that free throws attempted are only a rough approximation for how much a player drives, but Lewis has actually gone down this season, shooting 3.2 per 48 minutes instead of 3.8. And doesn't it strike you as a bit pathetic that we're talking about a 6-10 small forward playing in the post a little?

Kevin: Okay, the on-court angle obviously isn't working with you. So let's switch it up a little bit, came at this from a different direction. You're mister loyalty right? So devoted that he started the KGP . . . defender of one-team players? How then can you argue in good faith that the Sonics ought to trade away this kid when he could be the next 'Mr. Sonic'?
Kevin: The situations could not be more different, but let me give some credence to your argument by saying that as recently as a couple of weeks ago I would have agreed with that. I had come around on Rashard, thought we ought to keep this group together . . . but then he had to go and stick his foot in his mouth. "If they want to negotiate by not giving me the max, or whatever they want to give me, I am going to look at my options regardless. . . . But I feel that if I can go back home (to Houston) or go somewhere closer to home and get the same amount of money, then that is something I would do." Does that sound like a guy who should be shown loyalty? It sounds to me like he'd rather be in Houston then here. And if he feels that way, fine. I know if I got stuck writing on the East Coast, 3000 miles away from my family, I'd be upset. He's a free agent after this year and has every right to play where he wants. But realize this -- there would have been no KGP if I had felt that Payton didn't want to be here.

Kevin: Boy, this sure is a different tone than you had two years ago when Lewis was a free agent the first time. It was you who wrote e-mails to his friends saying that the Sonics would be screwed if they didn't re-sign Rashard, that they had no future without him, wasn't it?
Kevin: Again, the situations are completely different. Two years ago, we were talking about Lewis as the first player the Sonics had developed since Payton. That's no longer the case. The Sonics now have a number of young players who are contributing and can form part of a foundation for the future. Desmond Mason, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Earl Watson are all products of a pair of productive drafts, and I could make a fairly convincing argument that Radmanovic's upside is much higher than Lewis'. As well, he was going to leave without compensation two years ago. I hardly advocate that happening now, I'd like the Sonics to trade him.

Kevin: You could make that argument, but you must concede that Lewis is likely to be the best of the bunch, right?
Kevin: Only if you will concede that Lewis is still not at the level of several young West small forwards, like Peja Stojakovic, Kevin Garnett, Shawn Marion, and Dirk Nowitzki. Beyond that, it's arguable that he's better than Lamar Odom, Antawn Jamison, Eddie Griffin (if he's a small forward), Andrei Kirilenko and maybe even his old teammate Ruben Patterson.

Closing Statements:
Kevin: Rashard Lewis is, by your own overall statistics, probably the second most valuable Sonic player this season. I don't care what you say about development, he's 22 and bound to get better. He's got not place to go but up in terms of his handling and post play, and if he masters those he could be a perennial All-Star. Sure, the comparison to Kobe Bryant may be a bit off, but the fact is that Lewis is a bright up-and-coming star. It's too big of a risk to allow him to go elsewhere and maybe haunt the Sonics for many years.
Kevin: Rashard Lewis is, perhaps, the Sonics' fourth best starter, and it's tough to say that he's going to get significantly better in the coming years. There's little question that Lewis' past performance doesn't warrant a max contract; he wants -- and expects -- to be paid on potential; of which I'm doubtful. Max contracts may be given out like candy in the NBA nowadays, but that doesn't mean that's right. They should be reserved for star players who can take over games? Do you ever see Lewis doing that? I don't. It's too big of a risk to give him big bucks and risk having the contract, along with Baker's, haunt the Sonics for the next few years.

I dream of being a GM, but this is one time that I'm glad I'm not in the shoes of Rick Sund and Wally Walker. The arguments for and against showing Lewis the money are many, strong, and persuasive, and either way it could beome a mistake that haunts these guys for the rest of their careers. Good luck. . . .