May 6, 2002

Last season, the Seattle Supersonics won 44 games. This year, they won 45. So why then do I feel like this was a vastly superior season?

Well, I've got a lot of reasons, but let me start with the most obvious one. A year ago today, it was a warm sunny Saturday with the playoffs in full swing. But I wasn't watching the Lakers battle Sacramento or even Philadelphia and Milwaukee. Instead, I was sitting in an auditorium at Ingraham High School, one of about 50 people listening to a distinguished panel -- Howard Schultz, Desmond Mason, Wally Walker, and Billy McKinney -- speak about the Sonics. Before the Community Meeting, I had handed out flyers advertising The KGP to all those in attendance, and even Mason.

There were no playoffs to break down, no optimism about the team's strong youth core. Instead, there was the fear that Gary Payton would be traded for players not ready to contribute now -- if ever -- and the Sonics would become a 30-win team. The uncertainty was almost unbearable.

Look, watching a team getting blown out three times in five playoff games is not fun. But it sure as hell beats sitting in some high school that's an hour drive from your house trying to convince the Sonics' ownership that Payton is worth keeping and that this team, as is, can do something next season.

Any playoffs is, in my book, better than no playoffs. Yes . . . even for Minnesota. You really don't know how special even three playoff games are until you go one season -- or two in three years -- without them.

Why else might this have been a better season? Well, while wins are a nice context-dependent measure that we can use easily to judge a team's strength, they are far from perfect. And certainly a team's ranking relative to its peers is important. Last year, the Sonics were 10th in the Western Conference, this year seventh. If it only took one win to make the leap, oh, well. Obviously, a lot of other teams -- Phoenix, Houston, and Utah -- were sliding, so even staying the same doesn't look so bad.

Record also is not necessarily the best measure of the strength of a team. You might have noticed that the Sonics lost a lot of close games this season, the kind that often come down to luck. A bounce here, a slip there, and you go from 45 wins to 50 wins. Perhaps a better way of determining a team's strength is their Pythagorean record, which is approximately what a team with their points scored and allowed should have as a record.

Last season, the Sonics scored 97.3 points per game. They allowed . . . 97.3 points per game. All told, they outscored their opponents by two points over 82 games, 7978 to 7976. If you can't handle the complicated math, their expected record was (drum roll) 41-41. So the Sonics overachieved by three games last year.

This season, the Sonics dominated their opponents to a far greater degree. They upped their scoring slightly, to 97.7, while dropping their points allowed to 94.7. That three-point differential translates to a predicted .627 winning percentage, or better than 51 wins, meaning the Sonics underachieved by about six games.

To be straightforward, the Pythagorean record ignores the fact that points for and points against tend to be interrelated, so that's probably more than the Sonics 'really' did underachieve. But it provides slightly more accuracy with a lot more work, so I'll leave it for now.

This Pythagorean method was developed in baseball by Bill James, who also coined the term 'Johnson Effect' to describe how teams that have good luck in one year usually have poor luck the next, or vice versa. Part of the Sonics' underachieving relative to their point differential, then, could be seen as the effect of last year. On the other hand, if the trend holds (and all appropriate appendages are crossed), they could really luck into several wins next year, which (assuming the roster generally stays constant) might be enough to push them to 50-55 wins.

By the way, isolating the second-half provides an even prettier picture. Over the final 41 games, the Sonics outscored their opponents by more than five points per contest. Under the Pythagorean method, that translates to 58 wins over a full season, 29-12 over 41 games. In actuality, the Sonics were 24-17. So they've got some serious luck coming.

I hope after hearing that, you're starting to feel a lot better about the 2001-02 season, and forget about the horrors of game five. But I've still got more. . . .

How many of you felt Patrick Ewing was a key part of the Sonics' future? Emanual Davis, did you expect him to be a part of the next great Sonics team? How about Jelani McCoy? Vin Baker?

My point here -- yes, I do have one -- is that last season's team was not necessarily one that was designed for the long haul. Plenty of players playing significant minutes were not considered even then part of the team's future, and that doesn't even count Ruben Patterson, whose Seattle future was ended by his legal problems that surfaced a year ago Tuesday.

Whether or not it will actually shake out that the players who determined the Sonics' fate this season, injuries aside, are still part of the team even next year, the fact is that it's not unrealistic that they be here in the future. I only see two Sonics -- Vin Baker and Shammond Williams -- who seemingly have no future with the team under any scenario, and neither was a major contributor this season. Yes, I did just type that despite the fact that Baker started half of this team's games. But their finest stretch all season was when he was on the Injured List, and he did little of anything in the season's final month. Why, even Olumide Oyedeji showed flashes of rekindling his prospect status with strong second-half play!

The players here are also more suited to McMillan's style of basketball -- versatile, athletic, and more defensively-minded. Is it preposterous to consider James/Booth, Radmanovic, Lewis, Barry, Payton, and Mason a lineup that could seriously contend in the Western Conference? Maybe. It's surely optimistic, but a lot closer than the Ewing, McCoy, Lewis, Davis, Payton lineup that the Sonics ran out there every day even if they finished the season strong last year.

There is certainly no time for Rick Sund and Wally Walker to rest on whatever 'laurels' they might have earned this season by pointing this team back in the right direction. While this off-season surely does not bring the uncertainty that last year's held, there remain important moves to be made.

The first move, without question, must be re-signing Rashard Lewis. The Sonics' end-of-season struggles can leave no doubt but that Lewis is a critical part of the team's success. Perhaps more importantly, there simply is no alternative. If Lewis opts-out, the Sonics could not pull off a sign-and-trade deal unless he somehow accepted approximately $5.5 million per season, or less. Well, they could, but the Base Year Compensation designation Lewis would acquire is difficult to maneuver with. And at $5.5M, the front office would be idiots not to keep him.

Personally, I see Washington as the primary suitors for Lewis' services. The two teams with the most cap room, the Los Angeles Clippers and the Chicago Bulls, are both generally set at the forward positions. The Clippers have Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, Lamar Odom, and Darius Miles. The Bulls have Tyson Chandler, Jalen Rose, Marcus Fizer, and Eddie Robinson. They will be looking to fill other holes. The Washington Wizards, meanwhile, are limited at the power forward position. Christian Laettner and Popeye Jones shared minutes at the four this season, but neither is a long-term answer. That raises a question -- can Lewis play the power forward on a regular basis? In my opinion he definitely can in the Eastern Conference. The next question is how much cap room Michael Jordan can clear if he makes Lewis a priority. Considering the millions he's already sliced from the Wizard payroll, I wouldn't put any salary cap magic beyond Jordan's reach.

Oh, yes, then there's Houston. Well, I've already dealt with the issue of the sign-and-trade, which would be Houston's primary means of pulling off such a deal. Otherwise, they'd have to squeeze Lewis into their median exception, which should be somewhere between four and five million dollars. This is speculation, but I doubt Lewis wants to go back to Houston that bad.

If the Sonics can bring back Lewis, my next priority becomes Gary Payton. The organization, led by coach Nate McMillan, asked Payton to return a different player and person, leading and behaving off the court. He has held up his end of the bargain with his performance on and off the court this season. Now it's the Sonics' turn. Technically speaking, Payton could become a free agent this season if the Sonics choose not to exercise his option for next season. That is but a mere formality. What is not a formality is an extension that could keep Payton in Seattle for the remainder of his career. There is no doubt in my mind that Payton has earned this extension. It is time for Howard Schultz and Walker to do right by their star and their fans.

James has made occasional comments about not exercising his option to become a free agent next season, but doing so would basically be giving money to Schultz et. al., and I'm not sure that they are really in need of his charity. If -- no, when -- James opts out, the Sonics will likely make use of part or all of their median exception to bring him back. But what if that's not enough? Noting the contracts handed out last season to young centers based on potential, it's not out of the realm of possibility that James might get an offer the Sonics would not or could not match. The most likely scenario for this to happen would be for the Los Angeles Clippers to lose starting center Michael Olowokandi, also a free agent. That would leave them in need of a new big man. If Keon Clark and Raef LaFrentz, the best two centers on the market, stay at home, the Clippers might just turn to James. Stranger things have indeed happened. But the odds are good that James should return based on his comments about staying loyal to Nate McMillan.

If the Sonics now have a regret with drafting Earl Watson, it's that they only signed him for one season. Now, after establishing himself as a capable reserve point guard, he will hit the free agent market as well. How will Watson react to being left off of the playoff roster? Based on what I know of Watson's personality, he won't likely hold it against the organization, but it can't help. Assuming he returns, Watson could be forced to accept the minimum again, but I see it as more likely that he receives the team's million-dollar exception (which, curiously enough, will be $1.4 million next season) for two-years, giving the Sonics Bird rights when he next comes up for free agency.

Beyond Lewis, James, and Watson, the Sonics have three more free agents: Art Long, Randy Livingston, and Ansu Sesay. According to Frank Hughes in the Tacoma News-Tribune, Long reportedly left the team before the playoffs, unhappy that he was left inactive. It would not seem likely that he returns. Livingston and Sesay, however, clearly impressed the coaching staff to the point where they became key contributors in the series against San Antonio. The Sonics will probably attempt to retain both, but Sesay could become an interesting player in the free agent market after demonstrating that he can play on this level. Hopefully, they'll both be back.

After the front office finishes up with free agents, there are trades to attend to. I don't need to explain to anyone why Baker will be on the block. The question is what offers, if any, the Sonics will receive. After four strong months, Baker will be more sought-after this summer than last, but that isn't really saying much. Getting players with shorter contracts than Baker may be an optimistic goal for a trade. Williams has clearly fallen out of favor with McMillan and is a salary the team doesn't want or need to pay. He might be included in a Baker deal or shopped on his own to a team desperate for a reserve point.

There is a problem with my plan, as outlined in this column. If the Sonics use their exceptions on James and Watson, their only means of acquiring new talent will be through players signed for the minimum and their second-round pick. And while the front office did a fabulous job of finding players through both of those manners this past off-season, I'm not convinced they will be able to repeat their success. Counting on such 'diamonds in the rough' is a risky business indeed.

This year has definitely been, in my mind, a success for the Sonics. Next year can be too if the Sonics' front office makes the right moves.