I like to think of a Sonics fans as, generally, a realistic bunch. Sure, there were those that remained firmly convinced that the team would upset San Antonio, but a majority, led by Heavy and I, willingly conceeded the Spurs' superiority.

Apparently, now that the off-season has begun, that realism has gone out the window. This produces interesting discussions on message boards such as thinking the Sonics should decline Antoine Walker -- the East's starting power forward in the All-Star game -- for Vin Baker. Are you kidding me? Sure, Walker's All-Star status is a bit dubious seeing as how most of the league's top power forwards are in the West, but Baker will never be attending another All-Star game in his life without a ticket.

On the issue of whether Baker can be traded, there seem to be three schools of thought. There are the dreamers, who are firmly convinced that the Sonics can and will be getting a player who can be a major contributor next season. One scenario posted here at SonicsCentral had the Sonics getting three players who were starters last season for Baker. Somehow I don't see that.

Delusion is no one-way street; just as there are those who think the Sonics can practically name their price for Baker, so too are those who maintain little to any hope that the Sonics can trade Baker at all. Of course, these types can readily point to last season, when interest in Baker's services as an NBA player was only slightly greater than interest in me for the same. Circumstances, however, can change such things quickly. A year later, Baker is coming off what is clearly a much better season (of course, it would be hard to get much worse than his 42% shooting from the field off the bench during the 2000-01 season). As well, his contract is one year shorter. And the fact that sounds the deathknell for these hard-liners is this: According to media reports from several sources, the Sonics had a nearly-completed deal with some team, probably Indiana, in place before Baker suffered three dislocated toes on Valentine's Day against the Lakers.

Reality, as it usually does, probably lies somewhere between these two extremist viewpoints. The Sonics will likely be able to trade Baker this summer, but probably not for a player(s) who will start this season, maybe not even make the rotation. These newcomers' main advantages will likely be that they aren't Baker (sufficient for some fans) and are bound by shorter contracts, allowing the Sonics to dip under the luxury tax or perhaps salary cap in the near future.

Realism also seems to be of little concern when Sonics fans turn their attention to dreaming about next summer's free agent class, featuring players such as San Antonio's Tim Duncan, New Jersey's Jason Kidd, and Denver's Antonio McDyess. Fortunately, I haven't seen any scenario where the Sonics get Duncan -- yet -- but there has been plenty of speculation about Kidd and McDyess.

Yes, there is a possibility that the Sonics might be under the cap in time for 2003. It's far from guaranteed; in order for it to happen, one of the following three scenarios will have to occur:

1. The Sonics fail to re-sign Rashard Lewis. If this happens, the Sonics will have his salary slot to offer a free agent, which might get them far enough under the cap in 2003 to go after a big-name player.

2. Vin Baker is traded for players in the final year of their contracts. This would be the easiest way to get under the cap from a Sonic standpoint, in that it would not be very painful to the team's play next season or in the future. The real problem is that it might not be possible, as well as the fact that in getting players with such short contracts, the Sonics will be foregoing more skilled players who may be able to help them.

3. Renounce Gary Payton. Perhaps the most painful solution of all, in that the team takes a hit both on the court and in terms of losing its most popular player. As well, might be a self-defeating move, as would players like Kidd and McDyess really see going to a Payton-less Sonics as anything better than a lateral move?

In addition to these three possibilities which the Sonics can, to some extent, control, there are variables which are simply out of their hands. What the NBA might do with the salary cap in the next two years can only be guessed at by those outside the league office, including, quite possibly, the teams themselves. There have been myriad rumors throughout this season that the league might leave the salary cap at its current level, $42.5 million, or, more drastically, even reduce it. That could wreak havoc with any Seattle plans to get under the cap. While this might well be possible at a cap level of $50 million or higher, it would be virtually impossible if the cap for the 2003-04 season ended up at around $45 million.

The other significant outside factor affecting the Sonics' ability to sign a quality free agent will be the strategies of other teams. The Seattle organization is not the only one looking lustfully at players like Duncan, Kidd, and McDyess. Teams like the Orlando Magic, Denver Nuggets, and San Antonio Spurs have long been planning their attack on the 2003 market, structuring their roster with players whose contracts will come up after next season. As well, like Chris Webber last summer and Eddie Jones and Brian Grant the year before, these free agents might determine their best course of attack is to improve an already-good team that's over the cap, and make their move via a sign-and-trade. (Webber, of course, did not go anywhere, but had previously stated that he would leave only in that manner.) In that case, these free agents' market expands from a handful of teams to the entire NBA.

Kidd has been the player most frequently linked to the Sonics, because of his childhood friendship with Payton and his recent friendship with Howard Schultz. Kidd has made some comments that could be construed as showing his interest in playing with the Sonics and Payton. However, he's said the same about other teams and players, including McDyess -- just as last year Webber commented on playing for a number of teams before eventually staying in Sacramento. And if Kidd's relationship with Payton is the reason he'd want to come to Seattle, how might he feel about the team's unwillingness to acquiesce to Payton's desire for an extension this summer? Or, worse yet, about the prospect of replacing Payton as the Sonics' point guard?

In the end, while thinking about adding a big-name free agent to the team next summer -- especially without giving up Lewis or Payton -- is fun to think about, it doesn't seem very likely.

Speaking of Lewis, Sonics boards have been filled lately with discussion of possible Lewis trades. Well, more accurately, they'd be termed impossible Lewis fans. As I've previously discussed, if Lewis opts out of the final year of his contract (and he will), a new contract of greater than $5.5 million (and it will be bigger than that) in the first season will make him a Base-Year Contract player and make a trade with any team besides the three under the cap (Chicago, the LA Clippers, and Washington) nearly impossible.

Staunch beliefs that Lewis is not worthy of the number one pick notwithstanding, this is not so much an issue of perception versus reality as it is simply not paying attention (for many people). Anyone who reads my columns or places where I post should know the difficulty inherent in a Lewis trade, but some people seem to have missed it.