SonicsCentral.com | The Candid Corner

Well, That's a Surprise!

July 19, 2002

Yes, as the title implies, it goes without saying that the announcement yesterday evening that the Sonics had re-signed Jerome James to a three-year deal caught me off guard. Heck, when I saw the thread posted in our message boards that first tipped thought me off, I thought it had to be a joke. Now the question I must ask is, was it a good surprise? Or a bad surprise?

I know I'm disappointed about one thing. I had a great column fermenting in my head taking James to task for talking about loyalty and the unimportance of salary during the season and then taking the money and running during the summer. I was going to compose it immediately after he signed an offer sheet with New York or Memphis or some other interested suitor. You know, sorta like this column -- except with an entirely different tone. I had what I thought was a great title and repeated 'catchphrase' -- "Score one for the cynics".

Perhaps, then, I should have titled this, "Score one for the optimists". Because while James got his money (or so we assume; salary information has not been officially released, but it's generally assumed James got the full median exception), he was on KJR tonight with David Locke spouting the same stuff as during the season (as I furiously tried to scribble quotes on my legal pad). "I'm feeling fantastic right now. . . . My heart was always in Seattle," James opened with. He followed that by later claiming, "The fifth (priority) would be to get paid. The first thing is winning." (That, by the way, reminded me of a hilarious quote offered by James' agent, Mark Fleisher, where he said of the New York Knicks, "(James is) very intrigued by the Knicks because they're committed to winning." Maybe committed to trying to win.

The optimists also won out in that the Sonics ponied up the money for James. I'm really not sure what to make of it. Assuming James is getting at least $4 million for next season (and that seems like a safe assumption, but you never know), there's no way the Sonics could re-sign Lewis and stay under a luxury tax assessed at $50 million, as some have projected. $53 million would be a stretch; odds are Lewis will get at least $7 million next season. Adding those two to the Sonics' existing contracts gives approximately $52 million. At $53 million, they'd have to sign Sesay and Watson for the minimum (or someone else for the same) and play with a 12-player roster at the end of the season.

So, then, my interpretation is that signing James right now tells us one of three possible new facts:
1. As has been rumored, the NBA will waive the luxury tax in exchange for an extension of the current CBA.
2. The "insider" projection of the tax level is much higher than the media has generally speculated; something more like $55 million.
3. The Sonics have decided to pay the tax for one season, deeming the extra money less important than the loss of talent they'd face.

But that's not what you're reading for. What you want to know is what I think of this deal. I've generally tried to reserve my feelings on James until something went down for sure. And I'm conflicted even now. On the one hand, the Sonics are not in a position where they can afford to be letting useful players go. After all, if James and Olumide Oyedeji both walked for nothing as free agents and the Sonics were unable to find a palatable Baker deal before simply dumping him for players with shorter salaries who couldn't play at all (Thankfully, this won't be the if, as rumored, the Sonics can move Baker to Boston. I don't know if anybody else watched Kenny Anderson during the playoffs, but he ran the pick-and-roll to perfection. And I'm quite certain the Sonics will be using that heavily next year. As for Vitaly Potapenko -- if he's your fourth or fifth big man, which he would be in Seattle, you're definitely ahead of the game.) then they could have gotten stuck with only Peja Drobnjak, Vladimir Radmanovic, and a still-questionable Calvin Booth up front.

Now, the Sonics seem set at center for the next three years with James and Booth splitting time what would seem now to be fairly equally. No, it's not Shaquille O'Neal in the middle, but teams can -- and do -- do a lot worse than the Sonics' duo, even if they're making quite a bit of money. Both will give the Sonics rebounding and shot-blocking, and being able to plug them in for 40+ minutes a night should in itself be a significant help for the Sonics' rebounding woes.

But still, one can't help but have a bad feeling about James. Sure, he says all the right things -- "There is no weight issue." . . . "I believe I have so much room to grow." -- but they are, as the cliche indicates, easier said than done. And during his interview with David Locke on KJR tonight, he seemed curiously in denial about his, ahem, "bulking up" after he hurt his knee in Sacramento, claiming that he had never had a weight problem. Sure, whatever.

The fact is that at this stage of his career, I don't feel like the Sonics can count on Jerome James. And I'm not sure they ever will be able to. The team particularly needed him in the playoffs, facing the NBA's second-best post player in San Antonio's Tim Duncan. James did fairly well in game two, scoring in the post and containing Duncan -- who surely can't be stopped -- but that was basically the sum total of his contributions during the series. During games four and five, he was a complete and total non-factor, barely even getting off the bench. And Fleisher had the audacity to insinuate recently that James was upset with his lack of playoff playing time! That didn't win him -- or James -- any points with me.

I also can't help but wonder if the Sonics might not have been better off displaying a little more patience with James. Danny O'Neil passed along in yesterday's Post-Intelligencer that Fleisher claimed James was ready to sign an offer sheet somewhere, but I can't help but believe that was a bluff. The Knicks seem more interested in Utah's Jarron Collins right now and had supposedly backed off giving James the full exception anyway. Memphis is looking to use some of their median exception on 7-1 Polish center Cezary Trybanski, meaning they would not be able to offer their full exception on James. Who else would? Portland? Unlikely; the Blazers still need a point. Sacramento? The Kings are surely luxury tax bound, meaning the full exception would really cost them $9 million this season. The Sonics, then, might have been able to match one of these offers and save some money, if James indeed got the full exception (and maybe even if he didn't).

In the final analysis, I wrote in James' scouting report a couple weeks ago, "A more reasonable deal, in the neighborhood of three years and $10 million dollars, should bring James back to Seattle." That was before his value escalated dramatically, but it's what I think he's worth after one-half season of playing regularly. I stand by that thought, so I can't help but conclude that the Sonics giving him approximately 50% more over the same period is overpaying. It might still be better than losing James for nothing, but don't count me amongst those who are ecstatic over this signing. Mildly pleased would be more accurate.

Of course, I would likely nothing more than to be proven wrong. If James could fulfill his prophecy to Locke that he'd be one of the top centers when his deal ended, that would be a huge windfall for all involved. Actually, if James emerges over this contract as the Sonics' clear starter and an above-average center, my late-February column where I concluded decisively he was the answer at center would be proven right. But my comment in late December in the message boards that James would not provide the Sonics any valuable minutes would continue to be proven dramatically wrong. So either way I'm right. And wrong. Does your head hurt too?

Before I finally head to bed and close what has been a long -- but very exciting -- day, I'd like to take this time to comment on the battle for starting center which began in earnest this evening. For the time being, I'm going to assume that Vladimir Radmanovic starts at power forward and is backed up by Drobnjak. (Yes, a certain underachiever does not factor into this scenario; I really think he's gone no matter what now that James is back.) I don't think it's smart to play Booth and Drobnjak together very much, seeing as how their skill sets are very similar. So I'd rather have James and Drobnjak together off the bench -- which, oddly, was your starting duo last April. Then start Booth and Radmanovic, which makes for an awfully good passing starting five. Good ball movement means open shots means high field goal percentage means . . . well, I'll leave that exercise for the reader.

Kevin Pelton has served as beat writer, columnist, editor, copy editor, and webmaster for SonicsCentral.com since its inception. He also writes a weekly column for Hoopsworld.com and is a student at the University of Washington in his spare time. The Candid Corner is updated every Monday. Kevin can be reached at kpelton@sonicscentral.com. All opinions expressed in this column are solely the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of other columnists or the SonicsCentral.com staff.

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